Well, this is something of a surprise:
Twelve-year Attorney General Thurbert Baker will enter the 2010 race for governor, a move that could make the Democratic side of the contest every bit as complicated as the Republican one.
Jeff DiSantis, acting as a spokesman for Baker, said the attorney general has prepared the paperwork necessary to start raising money, and will file official notice shortly after the Legislature adjourns.
“This is not a contingent discussion. This is not based on whoever else is running,” DiSantis said. “It doesn’t need to be couched.”
Baker, an African-American, won more votes than anyone else on the Democratic ticket in 2006, his last statewide election.
His intention is to run a tough-on-crime campaign. More details to come.
Baker has won re-election by impressive margins in the past, and his candidacy would immediately be taken seriously on both sides of the fence. For the Democrats, former Gov. Roy Barnes has been sounding frisky lately, and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter has expressed interest, as well.
(Hat-tip: TheUnknown285)
Barnes and the rest stay out so Baker has a clear field. The demographics of the primary definately favor Baker, so it’s possible.
I’ve briefly met Porter and heard some things that make me uneasy. Plus, his state house seat would be vulnerable.
Baker, I worry might run too far to the right. Plus, you have the double edged sword of race.
Poythress I don’t know much about but I do know he’s lost before.
Barnes I like but he has some obvious baggage (both the rednecks and the teachers). On the other hand, I could see him running ads saying, “I made some people mad. I made some mistakes. But Georgia was a much better place when I was governor. [insert elaboration].” Could be really effective.
is probably not too much of an asset. It may be needed to portray Baker as a moderate initially, but you have to have a lot more than that, and offer something on economic issues.
who fought to keep that poor kid in jail and a sex-offender because he ran afoul of a loophole in the law?
Tough on crime. Just my kind of guy. Let’s bankrupt the state and get the added bonus of using that money to murder innocent people and lock up people for minor crimes! My favorite!
But yeah, he’s probably got the best shot of winning both the primary and the general. And since we’re not going to get much better in Georgia hopefully the field will clear on our side and he’ll win the general.
As a native Georgian, I don’t buy that either Barnes or Porter will get into the race now with a high profile black like Baker getting into the mix. The Genarlo Wilson stuff is certainly not the greatest thing on the bio but I think it won’t hurt him in the general election. This guy can apparently can raise a ton of $$$ which will be critical against the big money machines the GOP will put up and I think he can get the AA turnout numbers close to the Obama numbers while doing better among white moderate to conservative voters. The key really is whether liberals will boycott his campaign due to the Genarlo Wilson stuff which could really hurt.
http://www.ethics.georgia.gov/…
and a stronger candidate than roy barnes because barnes lost (please see ronnie musgrove if you’re wondering).
obviously the economy is the number one thing on people’s minds right now and probably for the foreseeable future, but “tough on crime” is an incredibly important element for him to use to appeal to the independents and conservative democrats that he needs to win.
an african american democrat is assumed to be for higher taxes and a permissive society. a tough on crime AG can answer that.
We don’t have elected officials with those names in MN. Although we did have an Elwyn and an Arne, and Martin Olav Sabo.
Baker is a black Democrat who shockingly has a proven record of winning over a substantial number of conservative white Southerners who are in the habit of voting for him.
The notion that he can’t pull Obama’s support among black Georgians is nutty on its face. Some of you people think black Georgians, who almost always vote Democrat, aren’t going to turn out in troves and droves to elect the first black Governor, also a Democrat, of a deep South slave/segregationist state? I think anyone who doubts Baker’s ability to piggyback on Obama’s black voter performance is seriously lacking in any understanding of voting behavior. Yeah Baker could screw up what easily should be a very favorable turnout model by simply running a bad campaign, but that’s a completely different thing from a ridiculous argument that somehow Baker “isn’t liberal enough” for black Georgians.
Further, the controversial Wilson statutory rape case is overblown as an electoral issue. It’s the sort of issue that only die-hard activists care about, including some people on these blogs, and that’s a very tiny fraction not just of the general electorate, also of the Democratic primary electorate. Even black voters aren’t going to be moved by it to stay home or vote for someone else. Black Georgians aren’t as a whole across-the-board ideological liberals anyway, and they’ve been practical enough for decades to vote for Democrats who tack to the middle or even center-right to have a chance to win in November. The bottom line is that the Wilson case is not politically important enough to influence voters.
Baker running is a Godsend for Georgia Democrats across the board. He still could lose, and very easily so, simply because white Georgians are soooooo conservative these days and have grown to vote Republican as a habit. But he is FAR more electable than any other Democrat, he easily will win more white votes than any white Democrat including Barnes, and he easily will gin up black turnout more than any other Democrat. And everyone down-ballot will benefit from this, just as in 2008. Baker at the top means Jim Marshall and John Barrow win comfortably even if they have strong challengers, and Dem state legislative candidates enjoy enhanced performance, whatever that ends up meaning after other factors (candidate recruitment, party coordination) also have their impact.
I’m actually inclined to believe you.
more detailed comment on that thread.